My Iowa Caucus Predictions: Some Surprises, No Blowouts

Since I’ve gotten into making some predictions recently, I’m going to make some more and see how they pan out on Thursday night:

On the Republican side, I think Mike Huckabee will win with a plurality, but it won’t be a blowout — probably an 8-10 point win. It doesn’t have to be a blowout for him. He’s been grossly outspent by Romney. The only thing he needs to do is to manage any unrealistic “front runner” expectations that have come about in the last few weeks. He can almost claim to be the “winner” regardless of his actual placement, because three months ago, he was a nobody. Pay no attention to the polls, as they can’t really predict how people caucus (or IF they actually caucus at all) — it’s not like voting in a primary in the least. It’s all about intensity and organization.

Despite some recent weakness, I think Romney will finish in a close second place — mainly as a consequence of his strong local organization. Even if he squeaked out a first place win over Huckabee, it would probably be perceived as a second place finish due to the exorbitant amount of money and effort he’s spent in the state. Perception is reality in politics. Strangely enough, a strong second place finish may help him just as much, if not more than a weak first place finish.

I think the big surprise of the night might be John McCain. I think he’ll finish a very strong third … which is all he’ll really need to claim any momentum heading into New Hampshire. Although I think there is a theoretical possibility of him actually finishing second, I think his “surge” may have come too late for that. Regardless, coming back from the [political] dead tends to be viewed as a positive by most. I think Thompson will coast along to a fourth place finish, with Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul clamoring for single-digit table scraps.

On the Democrat side, I think it will be Obama, Edwards, and Hillary, in that order, but by a close enough margin to not be a blowout by anyone. If Hillary finishes in third, it should definitely kill the “inevitability” argument. Obama is polling well, but expectations also have to be managed, as his “new” voters may not pan out at caucus time. The surprise just may be a strong second place showing for Edwards … gee, he’s only been campaigning there for something like six years! We’ve only just begun…

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008, by Will Ricci and is filed under "2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans ". Both comments and pings are currently closed.